Preface

Acknowledgements

General introduction

Aurélie Wilfart, Sandrine Espagnol, Mathieu Vigne, Olivier Mora and Jonathan Vayssières

Part 1. Foresight studies and changes in livestock farming within territories

Chapter 1. Foresight and questions surrounding livestock farming

Olivier Mora and Audrey Béthinger

Introduction to foresight approaches

Role of foresight analysis and scenarios in addressing uncertainty and complexity

The challenge of livestock farming in global foresight scenarios

Diverse ways of approaching the future of livestock farming

Chapter 2. Agriculture in Brittany in 2040: an exploratory foresight study in the region of Brittany

Maud Marguet

The start of the project

Baseline studies prior to constructing a foresight system

Building foresight systems

Conclusion

Chapter 3. Towards peaceful transhumance at the border between Togo and Burkina Faso. A territorial and anticipatory approach

Jean-Michel Sourisseau and Véronique Ancey

Study background and objectives

General approach

Outcomes and lessons learned

Perspectives

Conclusions

Chapter 4. Transition(s) 2050, prospective modelling of the French agricultural and food sectors

Antoine Pierart

Introduction

Methodology

Limitations and outlooks

Coupling “foresight and assessment”

Conclusion

Chapter 5. The importance of livestock farming and animal products in the Agrimonde-Terra foresight project on land use and global food security in 2050

Olivier Mora and Chantal Le Mouël

The Agrimonde-Terra method: combination of a scenario method and digital simulation approach

Land use and global food security scenarios and their quantified impacts

Future challenges of livestock production for food and nutrition security

Limitations of livestock quantification in Agrimonde-Terra scenarios

Conclusion

Part 2. The inclusion of modelling and scenario assessments in foresight approaches

Chapter 6. Introduction to scenario modelling and assessments

Jonathan Vayssières, Mathieu Vigne and Aurélie Wilfart

Why do scenarios from foresight studies need to be modelled and assessed?

An introduction to modelling and assessment approaches

Four studies illustrating the diversity of modelling-assessment methods and their use in foresight studies

Chapter 7. Use of the MAELIA platform to perform an integrated assessment and modelling of agricultural systems and farmlands within a foresight approach

Olivier Therond

From sustainability issues to integrated approaches

Yes, there needs to be integration, but of what?

An integrated modelling approach to territories

MAELIA, an integrated assessment and modelling platform for agricultural systems and farmlands

MAELIA, supporting dynamics in several application areas

MAELIA, streamlining research and supporting agriculture and bioeconomy actors

Specific features of the MAELIA platform

Maelia to support territorial foresight approaches

Chapter 8. Assessing the multifunctionality of livestock grazing systems within territories: examples from the Sahel and South-East Asia

Alexandre Ickowicz, Mélanie Blanchard, Vincent Blanfort, Jean Daniel Cesaro, Christian Corniaux, Arona Diaw, Bernard Hubert, Jacques Lasseur, Huyen Le Thi Thanh, Jean-Pierre Müller, Liz Wedderburn

Introduction

Why apply a multifunctionality concept to livestock grazing systems

Building a multifunctional conceptual model to support the dynamics of local livestock grazing systems

Case studies using a multifunctionality approach to livestock farming in Vietnam and Senegal

Transversal multifunctionality analysis

Conclusion

Chapter 9. Afterres 2050: from creating scenarios to assessing them

Christian Couturier

History and objectives of the Afterres 2050 scenario

Foundations of the approach

Exploring the Afterres 2050 scenario

Targets

Chapter 10. An agroecological Europe in 2050, “Ten Years For Agroecology” (TYFA) scenario

Pierre-Marie Aubert and Xavier Poux

Introduction

TYFA scenario assumptions

Results

Discussion

Conclusion: reviewing the role of permanent grasslands and ruminants in the sustainability agenda

Part 3. Transversal analysis of foresight exercises and scenario modelling-assessment

Chapter 11. Analysis frameworks for coupling approaches to better combine foresight and assessment

Mathieu Vigne and Jonathan Vayssières

Why use a framework to help choose the type of coupling?

Assessments play various roles in the coupling process

The choice of coupling type is based on data availability

From an analysis framework to a typology for coupling frameworks

Conclusion and outlook

Chapter 12. Components of agri-food systems and variables in foresight scenarios

Aurélie Wilfart, Olivier Mora and Sandrine Espagnol

Assumptions and background data for foresight scenarios

Foresight scenario assessment methods

Chapter 13. Possible futures for livestock farming and ownership by policy makers

Aurélie Wilfart, Olivier Mora and Sandrine Espagnol

Introduction: the role of foresight studies in the public policy cycle

Livestock farming at the centre of numerous French government departments

The main political actions concerning livestock farming in France

How are foresight studies used in French public policy?

What about in other contexts elsewhere in the world?

General conclusion. Key points to remember

Jonathan Vayssières and Aurélie Wilfart

Thematic summary

Methodological summary

Functional summary

Bibliographic references

Abbreviations and units

List of authors