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Estimation de l'aléa pluvial en France métropolitaine

Name: Estimation de l'aléa pluvial en France métropolitaine
Brand: Éditions Quae
SKU: 9782759218042
Price: 40.0 EUR
Availability: InStock
ISBN: 978-2-7592-1804-2

by Jacques Lavabre (writer), Patrick Arnaud (writer)

Collection: Guide pratique

january 2010

Book 140 x 245 format 158 pages In stock	40,00 €
eBook [ePub] [NR] format Download after purchase	27,99 €
eBook [PDF] [NR] format 158 pages Download after purchase	27,99 €

Summary

How can the most common to the most extreme rain be estimated at all points in an area? How can the rain hazard be taken into account in regional development in terms of flood risk?
The SHYPRE method (hydrograph simulation to predetermine rises in water levels) developed by Cemagref has produced a database of rain quantiles from one to 72 hours. This methods guide supplements and explains the method, with the results provided for the entire French territory put on line via the Météo-France climate library. This is currently the only method for mapping the rain risk applied to the whole of France (including overseas departments).
Having analysed various approaches and problems in predetermining the rainfall hazard, the work details the design, calibration and regionalisation stages of the rain generator. It also offers a summary of various scientific publications relating to the development of this method.
This guide will serve as a reference for everyone involved in operations (State departments and Design Offices) using the database associated with the method distributed by Météo-France. It will also be of interest to researchers involved in worst-case rain simulations.

Problématique 7
Introduction 7
Difficultés des statistiques classiques 10
Autres approches 18
Simulation de chroniques de pluies horaires 23
Les générateurs de pluie 23
Principe du modèle de pluie horaire de SHYPRE 27
Particularités du générateur 39
Application 56
Paramétrisation par l'information journalière 67
Les paramètres fixés 68
Paramètres « journalisés » 71
Corrections systématiques 78
Application sur 2 812 postes journaliers 84
Régionalisation des paramètres journaliers 97
Descriptif de la méthode utilisée 97
Cartes résultantes 100
Contrôle de la régionalisation des paramètres 107
Restitution des quantiles journaliers 111
Analyse des pluies horaires 118
Analyse des résultats. Discussion 125
Les cartes induites 125
Robustesse 127
Stabilité spatiale 133
Comportement à l'infini 135
Intervalle de confiance (Muller, 2006) 138
Comparaisons à une approche statistique regionale d'après Neppel et al., 2007 143
Conclusion 151
Références bibliographiques 153

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