Land Use and Food Security in 2050: a Narrow Road

Agrimonde-Terra

by Chantal Le Mouël (editorial coordination), Marie De Lattre-Gasquet (editorial coordination), Olivier Mora (editorial coordination)
october 2018
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After a first foresight study on ‘World food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on ‘Land use and food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security.


Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled ‘Metropolization’, ‘Regionalization’ and ‘Households’ are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled ‘Healthy’ and ‘Communities’ involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The ‘Healthy’ scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the ‘Metropolization’ scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors.


This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.


Preface

Michel Eddi, Philippe Mauguin

 

Acknowledgements

Introduction

 

1. The ’Land Use and Food Security’ System

Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Chantal Le Mouël and Olivier Mora

 

2. Agrimonde-Terra’s Foresight Approach to Scenario Construction

Olivier Mora and Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

 

3. The GlobAgri-Agrimonde-Terra Database and Model

Chantal Le Mouël, Patrice Dumas, Stéphane Manceron, Agneta Forslund and Elodie Marajo-Petitzon

 

4. Land-use Change Trajectories in Existing Scenario Studies

Chantal Le Mouël and Agneta Forslund

 

5. Retrospective Overview of Land Uses at Global Level and by World Regions

Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Marco Barzman, Pauline Marty and Clémence Moreau

 

6. The Global Context

Marie de Lattre-Gasquet and Clémence Moreau

 

7. Climate Change: Impacts and Mitigation

Thierry Brunelle, Patrice Dumas, Christophe Cassen, Stéphane Manceron, Elodie Marajo-Petitzon and Véronique Lamblin

 

8. Dietary Changes, Nutrition Transition and the Future of Global Diets

Olivier Mora

 

9. Urbanization, Rural Transformation and Future Urban-Rural Linkages

Olivier Mora, Frédéric Lançon and Francis Aubert

 

10. Farm Structures: Current Shaping Forces and Future Farms

Catherine Donnars, Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Jacques Marzin and Laurent Piet

 

11. Cropping Systems

Olivier Réchauchère, David Makowski, Eric Malézieux and Florent Maraux

 

12. Livestock Systems

Stéphane Manceron, Patrice Dumas, Clémence Moreau, Alexandre Ickowicz, Philippe Lecomte and Philippe Lescoat

 

13. Scenarios of Land Use and Food Security in 2050

Olivier Mora

 

14. Land-use Change Impacts of the Agrimonde-Terra Scenarios: An Assessment with the GlobAgri-AgT Model

Chantal Le Mouël and Elodie Marajo-Petitzon

 

15. Regional Dimension of the Agrimonde-Terra Scenarios: The Example of sub-Saharan Africa

Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Clémence Moreau and John Okul

 

16. Lessons on Land Use and Food Security from the Scenarios

Chantal Le Mouël, Olivier Mora and Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

 

17. Options for public policies

Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

 

Conclusion

References

 

Appendix 1

Appendix 2

Authors

 


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Language(s): English

Publisher: Éditions Quae

Edition: 1st edition

Collection: Matière à débattre et décider

Published: 14 october 2018

Reference eBook [PDF]: 02659NUM

Reference eBook [ePub]: 02659EPB

Reference Book: 02659

EAN13 eBook [PDF]: 9782759228805

EAN13 eBook [ePub]: 9782759228812

EAN13 Book: 9782759228799

Interior: Two-colour

Format (in mm) Book: 145 x 210

Pages count eBook [PDF]: 400

Pages count Book: 400

Weight (in grammes): 720 (Book)

Size: 7,6 Mo (PDF), 8,8 Mo (ePub)

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